In a time of increasing climate variability, researchers Pengfei Xue and Miraj B. Kayastha have developed regional Earth system models to better understand and predict extreme weather and environmental change. Their groundbreaking work has been honored with Michigan Technological University's 2025 Bhakta Rath Research Award.
Michigan Tech has long been a leader in Great Lakes research. Professor Pengfei Xue and Ph.D. student Miraj B. Kayastha have centered their research on the lakes as a crucial part of the ever-expanding puzzle of regional climate variability and prediction. Their advanced computational models take an interconnected, holistic approach to understand and predict extreme weather events and environmental change.
About the Award
The Bhakta Rath Research Award, established in 2010, is presented to a Michigan Tech Ph.D. student and their faculty advisor in recognition of their "exceptional scientific and technological research in anticipation of the future needs of the nation."
Regional Earth system models predict more than weather; Xue and Kayastha's research examines how the Great Lakes regional Earth system as a whole might evolve in the future, with a focus on water levels and lake-effect snow storms. By integrating state-of-the-art coupled representation of the Great Lakes, their prediction models provide more reliable and timely insights for scientists, policy-makers and stakeholders working in fields such as infrastructure and transportation networks, drinking water supply, energy production, natural resource management and beyond.
Jiali Wang, principal atmospheric and Earth scientist at Argonne National Laboratory, praised the "cutting-edge modeling framework" in her nomination letter, as well as the work Kayastha has done under Xue's tutelage. "Miraj exemplifies the dedication and innovation that define a top-tier researcher," she wrote.
Michael Notaro, director of the Nelson Institute Center for Climatic Research at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, described Miraj Kayastha as "an extremely productive researcher and early-career leader" whose innovative modeling work is advancing understanding of how future climate conditions could reshape extreme lake-effect snowstorms in the Great Lakes region.
Ayumi Fujisaki-Manome, an associate research scientist at the Cooperative Institute for Great Lakes Research (CIGLR), headquartered in the School for Environment and Sustainability at the University of Michigan Ann Arbor, also spoke to the broad impact of the research.
"The approach is novel and at the forefront of regional climate studies. Only a few scientists within the Great Lakes science community have capacity and skills to use this complex, state-of-art climate modeling system."
Xue and Kayastha have worked together for the last five and a half years, since Kayastha began his master's degree studies in 2019. Xue is a professor in Michigan Tech's Department of Civil, Environmental, and Geospatial Engineering and associate director of the Great Lakes Research Center, and it was his expertise in regional Earth system modeling that brought Kayastha to MTU in the first place.
"I was particularly inspired by the opportunity to work with Xue on modeling and projecting the future of the Great Lakes and its regional climate — work aimed at generating actionable insights for the public and decision-makers," said Kayastha.
"Given my strong interest in water and climate systems, Michigan Tech was a natural choice," he said. "Its leadership in Great Lakes research, supported by the exceptional facilities at the Great Lakes Research Center, created an ideal environment for pursuing meaningful, real-world research."
After graduating with his Ph.D. in Civil Engineering this spring, Kayastha is continuing this meaningful work, now with a new focus. He is currently a postdoctoral associate at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, where he is integrating regional climate projections with hydrological modeling and water management strategies to help vulnerable communities in Morocco adapt to increasing water scarcity and shifting rainfall patterns.
In this Q&A session with Michigan Tech News, Xue and Kayastha discussed the importance of their research and reflected on their time together.
Q: How would you explain your research to a general audience?
PX: We study how water, air, ice, land and life interact across large regional Earth systems, with a particular focus on the Laurentian Great Lakes. Our work centers on developing advanced computer models to understand and predict how these interconnected systems respond to both natural variability and human-driven disturbances — including extreme events, environmental change, coastal hazards and lake biophysical processes. To enhance the accuracy and utility of these models, we integrate mechanistic modeling with machine learning techniques, enabling more reliable and timely insights for scientists, stakeholders and decision-makers.
MK: Our research aims to understand how the Great Lakes and their regional climate might evolve in the future, with a particular focus on changes in water levels and devastating lake-effect snowstorms. We leveraged the state-of-the-art regional Earth system model developed by our research group at Michigan Tech, led by my advisor Pengfei Xue, which uniquely incorporates a three-dimensional representation of the Great Lakes and accurately captures lake-atmosphere interactions. This work supports Great Lakes coastal communities by providing critical insights into future climate impacts and helps policymakers and stakeholders develop strategies to build climate resilience.
Q: The Bhakta Rath award recognizes "research in anticipation of the future needs of the nation." How do you see your research meeting those future needs?
"We are entering a time when climate variability, extreme weather and environmental change will increasingly challenge the resilience of our infrastructure, natural resources and communities — especially in freshwater and coastal regions. Our work in regional Earth system modeling helps us understand how these interconnected systems respond to both natural forces and human activities."
PX: These systems are not only vital ecological assets but also essential to drinking water supply, energy production, transportation networks and the economic well-being of over 30 million people living in the Great Lakes region. In essence, our research provides the scientific foundation and decision-support tools needed to navigate an uncertain future. It directly advances the nation's capacity for sustainable development, resource security and resilience — critical pillars for meeting the challenges of the decades ahead.
MK: Our research addresses the nation's future climate-related challenges by advancing tools and knowledge essential for climate resilience, sustainable resource management and extreme weather adaptation. By improving projections of lake water levels and lake-effect snowstorms, our work supports infrastructure planning, disaster mitigation and ecosystem sustainability. The research also fosters practical applications across sectors — supporting artificial intelligence-driven forecasting, insurance risk assessments and sustainable energy operations — making it a vital resource for addressing the climate-related challenges ahead.
Q: What led to your interest in regional climate modeling research?
MK: My interest in regional climate modeling for the Great Lakes was initially sparked by my amazement at their sheer size. Learning that these lakes are nearly as large as the United Kingdom and play a major role in shaping the regional climate ignited a curiosity in me. Their immense scale, combined with Professor Xue's pioneering efforts to overcome the limitations of how the Great Lakes are represented in regional Earth system models, naturally drew me in and fueled a strong motivation to pursue modeling more deeply.
Q: How do you see your research affecting the broader field of climate science?
"Our research contributes a significant advancement in projecting future conditions for the North American Great Lakes, offering critical insights for managing water resources and guiding long-term urban planning and climate resilience efforts."
MK: By using a regional Earth system modeling that incorporates a two-way coupled 3D lake model, our work sets a new benchmark in hydroclimate modeling. This approach is not only transformative for the Great Lakes but also applicable to other large inland freshwater systems around the world — such as Lake Baikal in Russia and Lake Victoria in Africa — where comparable climate-driven challenges persist.
Q: Research is a collaborative effort. Tell us about your various research partners and what it is like to work with them.
MK: During my graduate study in Xue's group, I've worked closely with collaborators from Michigan Tech, Argonne National Laboratory, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, NOAA and international collaborators from Bangor University, U.K. These partnerships bring together diverse expertise — from cutting-edge modeling techniques to community-based engagement and decision-making. It's been a deeply enriching, interdisciplinary experience.
Q: How long have you two been working together? What is it like to work with one another? What have you learned from each other?
PX: Miraj and I have been working together since fall 2019, when he joined my research group as a master's student. Over the past five and a half years, I've had the privilege of watching him grow into an independent and creative researcher. Working with Miraj has been deeply rewarding — he brings persistence, integrity and curiosity to every challenge we tackle.
"What I've appreciated most is our shared commitment to using science and technology to address real-world problems, especially in the context of climate variability, natural hazards, and regional environmental resilience. Through our collaborations — on modeling system development and interdisciplinary projects — I've seen him evolve from a student absorbing knowledge to a scholar generating new insights."
I've also learned a lot from mentoring Miraj. He constantly reminds me of the importance of clear communication and bringing fresh perspectives to complex systems. Our discussions often challenge me to think differently about the assumptions we make and the methods we use. It's a two-way learning experience, and I'm proud of the scientist — and person — he's become.
MK: Professor Xue and I have been working together since fall 2019, when I first joined Michigan Tech as a master's student. He is an exceptional mentor and leader who encourages innovative thinking and intellectual curiosity. He has provided me with numerous opportunities to grow professionally by inviting me to participate in multi-institutional research projects and supporting my presentations at several prestigious international conferences. Under his guidance, I've gained not only valuable technical and professional skills, but also a deeper appreciation for asking bold, impactful research questions — and for maintaining a healthy balance between research and personal life.
Q: Anything else you would like to share? Anyone else you would like to thank?
PX: This award recognizes both Miraj's dedication and the work we've done together — but honestly, it reflects the efforts of many. I'm incredibly grateful to all the group members and collaborators we've had the privilege to work with over the years.
MK: I'm deeply thankful to my advisor, Professor Xue, and all the collaborators across the projects I worked on during my Ph.D. for their invaluable mentorship and support. I also sincerely thank my family for their unwavering encouragement throughout this journey. This award represents a shared recognition of the dedication and vision that shaped our research.
Michigan Technological University is an R1 public research university founded in 1885 in Houghton, and is home to nearly 7,500 students from more than 60 countries around the world. Consistently ranked among the best universities in the country for return on investment, Michigan's flagship technological university offers more than 185 undergraduate and graduate degree programs in science and technology, engineering, computing, forestry, business, health professions, humanities, mathematics, social sciences, and the arts. The rural campus is situated just miles from Lake Superior in Michigan's Upper Peninsula, offering year-round opportunities for outdoor adventure.
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